Late day severe storms expected Saturday
SATURDAY PM UPDATE:
KEY MESSAGE: Severe storms possible during the afternoon and through the overnight across much of KAKEland. While there may not be a large number of storms on the radar this evening, those that do develop will pose a very large hail; threat, possibly over 3" in diameter, wind gusts over 80mph and a few persistent tornadoes.
A tornado watch has been issued for much of South Central Kansas. This watch means ingredients are present for storms that COULD produce tornadoes. This watch goes until 11PM. It is possible that another Watch may be issued, across North Central Kansas.
The region highlighted in the bright orange color on the map below is the region most likely to experience severe weather Saturday afternoon through the overnight. Storms will be possible north, but the chances of encountering them is a bit lower and the same goes for the western edge highlighted in yellow. Those West of the Dry Line, in the un-highlighted area are likely to remain storm free.
Storms will likely start off across Western Kansas and then work their way eastward. Those across Southwest Kansas should look for development as early as 4:30PM.
Models have been consistent with a handful of storms sliding east toward the I-135 corridor. The spotty nature of these storms means that many will be missed by them and that is a good thing. Rough timing has put these storms in North and South Central Kansas, including Wichita, between 7 and 10PM.
Storms are expected to slide out of KAKEland tonight after midnight. Making way for a pleasant Sunday.
Remember that it is important to have multiple ways of receiving severe weather alerts. Those at area campgrounds should take extra precautions and know where a sturdy shelter is, in the event a storm heads your way.
SATURDAY 10 AM UPDATE:
As expected, and stated in our 8 AM morning update, there have been a few changes to the severe weather threat for this evening. South central KS up to Salina has been highlighted (bright orange) for more clarity as to where we could see the strongest of the thunderstorms and higher end threats. Threats still include large hail at or above 3", wind gusts at or above 80 mph and strong tornadoes. NOT EVERYONE will see this strong of storms and some of you may even stay dry through the evening and overnight hours. But the brightest orange highlighted below continues to be the spot we are concerned about and where thunderstorms could thrive the most. This includes Sedgwick County.
Newer model data shows more discrete thunderstorms which thunderstorms like when it comes to producing tornadoes. The first initial storms bubble up around HWY 283 around 5-6 PM. They will not be very strong when they first develop and will be a lower end severe weather threat for the highlighted yellow area on the threat map. The first few storms will also likely develop further southward where more moisture will be present.
As the storms move eastward into central KS, they will encounter more moisture and a few other key severe storm ingredients. This will allow them to quickly grow and intensify as they move towards Wichita, and this is not good. Not all storms will see the higher end threats, but south central KS has the better potential for some storms to.
Some models keep trying to produce one strong supercell that will move around Sedgwick County around 9 PM. While some of you may think it's good that only one storm may develop further south, that's not the case. This could be an incredibly strong thunderstorm due to the environment it will be in.
Storms will continue to linger until around 2 AM, before a majority of the moisture pushes into eastern KS for the remainder of the night and into the morning.
Chief Meteorologist Jay Prater and Meteorologist Frank Waugh will be in this evening to keep you all updated and safe on KAKE News. You can also stay up to date and safe by downloading our free KAKE First Alert Weather App. Keep your phone charged and volume on this evening and if you plan on sleeping after 8 PM.
Meteorologist Brittany Foster
@BrittFosterKAKE
SATURDAY 8 AM UPDATE:
Don't cancel your Memorial Day plans for today, but PLEASE stay weather aware. While most of your Saturday is looking dry, warm and sunny, the end of the day is looking active and full of storms. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to fire up after 5 PM in western KS and then gradually migrate into central KS into overnight tonight. All modes of severe weather are expected, but not everyone will see the higher end threats. The higher end severe threats include hail at or above 3" (size of an apple), wind gusts at or above 80 mph and even a tornado (some strong).
Our biggest limiting factor for today will be moisture. We are currently pretty dry across the state with dew points sitting in the 30-50s. Moisture will gradually increase thanks to southerly flow throughout the day, but the timing appears to be a bit delayed. If moisture with dew points in the 60s doesn't arrive until after sunset, our initial thunderstorms could be a bit weaker in western KS. This is good news, and a lot of our models are delaying timing of our increase in moisture.
A dry line will continue to strengthen as a result of the moisture returning and it will become more noticeable in western KS by the evening. Most models show weaker storms bubbling up along the dry line, before intensifying in central KS where more moisture will be available.
Storms fire up in western KS anytime at or around 7 PM. They won't develop into a clear line like we saw last Saturday, but instead will be more discrete. Most models as of this morning, show the first few storms around 5-7 PM, but this could change as data improves as we head into the evening.
More moisture will be present in southern KS, so the strongest storms will likely stay around south central and southeast KS.
As the evening progresses, more ingredients needed for thunderstorms will be present in central KS, resulting in more thunderstorm development and potentially stronger storms.
Storms will continue in central KS until around 2 AM, before we start to dry out into sunrise.
Remember, this is what ONE weather model is thinking. Please don't think radar will look just like this later today. But I think this model has a pretty good idea of what later this evening could look like.
Keep checking back here for updates and changes to the forecast as we head closer to the evening. Changes in time are expected...
We’ll keep you up to date with our Interactive Radar and LIVE weather coverage. Get those features and more on the free First Alert Weather App. With the app you can track storms in your area, stream the latest forecast videos and live severe weather coverage, and set customized alerts to keep you and your family informed and safe.
In the event of severe weather, click here to follow KAKE First Alert Storm Trackers in the field.
Meteorologist Brittany Foster
@BrittFosterKAKE
FRIDAY NIGHT UPDATE:
Despite being a holiday weekend, Saturday still has the potential to be a high-end severe weather event across much of Central KAKEland. This looks quite different than this past Sunday's derecho, this event looks like a more classic severe event where it is more hit/miss. Many people in the threat zone will see nothing but some people will have a very bad day with destructive severe storms. This event like most higher-end events is NOT a home run.
Here is the latest time line of this event.
Morning cloud cover will persist potentially through about noon. If clouds linger longer they could limit energy build up needed for severe storms.
As we near peak heating, we likely won't see much in the way of storm development due to a strong capping inversion/lid.
As it gets closer to dark, we should see supercell development across Central KS.
Wichita's greatest hazard window is between 7pm-12am. This particular run is rather aggressive with several rounds of supercells. Thankfully it's just a model though so things could change for the better.
As of right now, this looks more like a nocturnal severe weather event. All hazards including very large hail & tornadoes are in play. It's definitely a day to be Weather Aware & have multiple ways to get weather warnings.
Keep in mind, forecasting is fluid so check back for updates with Brittany on Saturday morning.
-Meteorologist Cameron Venable, CBM
FRIDAY PM UPDATE:
FRIDAY AM UPDATE:
Attention now shifts toward the severe weather threat on Saturday. A few late day storms possible on Saturday and they will develop in an environment that could quickly turn them severe with big time hail, high wind gusts and even a few tornadoes!
Saturday starts off quiet and dry and the vast majority of Saturday will be quiet! That being said, enjoy the start of your weekend but your attention should shift toward the weather as we get into the late day hours. It will be late in the day, probably between 6pm and 9pm, that we see some storm development along a dry line. While we may only see a few storms along the line, they could rapidly turn severe.
The spotty storms will track east during the overnight hours. This will likely bring the threat into North and South Central Kansas between 9pm and midnight. Those of you headed to area lakes and campgrounds need to be very weather aware! Have multiple ways of receiving severe weather alerts. The KAKE First Alert Weather App is a great resource and a NOAA Weather Radio is fantastic, especially if cell signal is spotty.
All forms of severe weather will be possible Saturday evening! Storms could produce hail stones, possibly larger than eggs (2") and wind gust up over 65mph. In additions to wind and hail, storms, especially those in South Central Kansas that manage to stay isolated could produce very dangerous tornadoes!
It is incredibly important to remember that NOT EVERYONE IN THIS THREAT ZONE WILL EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER. But rather storms in this zone have the potential to be very impactful. The storms will likely roll out of KAKEland in the very early morning hours of Sunday, making way for a beautiful wrap up to the long holiday weekend with a good deal of sunshine and comfortable highs.
Stay tuned for updates and alerts today and through the weekend. Keep it on KAKE, Saturday evening, for coverage from Chief Meteorologist Jay Prater, Meteorologist Frank Waugh and Meteorologist Cameron Venable.
We’ll keep you up to date with our Interactive Radar and LIVE weather coverage. Get those features and more on the free First Alert Weather App. With the app you can track storms in your area, stream the latest forecast videos and live severe weather coverage, and set customized alerts to keep you and your family informed and safe.
In the event of severe weather, click here to follow KAKE First Alert Storm Trackers in the field.
THURSDAY PM UPDATE:
Early this evening, a handful of thunderstorms will develop. A few may drop golf ball-size hail and a few wind gusts exceeding 65mph, across South Central Kansas.
While the risk of large hail, and tornadoes, is decreases across South Central KAKEland after 10pm, high wind gusts are likely across Northwest into the northern part of Southwest Kansas after midnight.
The peak of the highest gusts will start to ease by 4am Friday morning.
The next opportunity for widespread severe weather, including damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail, begins Saturday afternoon and lasts in to the night.
Stay aware of this potential weather threat this Memorial Day weekend.
THURSDAY AM UPDATE:
Storms are expected to fire up again in KAKEland and once again, some could be strong and potentially severe with large hail, high wind and even a few tornadoes.
Still quite a few questions remain regarding IF and WHERE storms develop. While a great deal of KAKEland is included in this threat zone map, it is important to realize this is far from a guarantee that you will experience severe weather, let alone rain showers.
Models point toward storms firing up during the mid afternoon hours along a North-South dry line that will be parked in Western Kansas. These initial storms could turn severe with large hail, high wind gusts and even isolated tornadoes possible. Overall storm coverage along this line is not expected to be over dense, and some models don't even show this development at all with others weakening the storms quickly as the track east.
There are two other areas of concern with in this large threat zone that we are concerned with. A few strong to severe storms may meander up into South Central KAKEland, out of Northern Oklahoma, during the evening and overnight. These storms could also produce large hail, high wind gusts and possibly even a stray tornado.
The other area of concern will be far Northern Kansas, as a line of storms may slide southeast out of Nebraska and into Kansas late Thursday into early Friday morning. The greatest threat will likely be high wind gusts for North Central Kansas and could even produce some high wind gusts further south into the early morning hours of Friday. After storms roll out Friday morning, the afternoon is looking bright and mostly dry and comfy with slightly cooler highs for most of the state.
Another round of storms will be possible on Saturday and they could also turn severe!
Like Tuesday, the threat zone includes much of the state and early indications point toward slightly higher storm coverage, meaning the chances of being impacted will be higher.
Like Thursday, all forms of severe weather will be possible, with an area in South Central Kansas, that could see a slightly elevated tornado threat in the late evening and overnight hours.
It is still a little early to get too "into the weeds" regarding the timing, it appears that storms will initiate along a Western Kansas dry line in the mid to late afternoon and march eastward. The exact placement of this line is still in question. Those with outdoor, holiday weekend plans, should pay very close attention to the weather situation on Saturday. If you are planning to go to an area lake or campground, have multiple ways of receiving severe weather alerts and know where the closest shelter is located! In addition to the KAKE First Alert weather app, a NOAA Weather Radio is a great resource in areas where cell phone coverage may be spotty.
Stay tuned for updates and alerts today and through the weekend.
We’ll keep you up to date with our Interactive Radar and LIVE weather coverage. Get those features and more on the free First Alert Weather App. With the app you can track storms in your area, stream the latest forecast videos and live severe weather coverage, and set customized alerts to keep you and your family informed and safe.
In the event of severe weather, click here to follow KAKE First Alert Storm Trackers in the field.
WEDNESDAY AM UPDATE:
After a relatively dry and calm Wednesday, the threat for severe storms will return to KAKEland on Thursday. Storms that manage to fire up on Thursday could produce large hail stones, high wind gusts and unfortunately a few tornadoes.
Thursday will likely start off quiet and dry with a southerly wind. It will be during the afternoon and evening that storms will be possible, in a couple of different locations in KAKEland. Across Western Kansas, a few isolated storms will be possible along a north-south oriented dry line. In addition to the dry line storms, a few may try to fire up across South Central Kansas, should they be able to break through the cap or the "lid" on the atmosphere. And finally a line of storms may eventually form as we go into the overnight hours in North Central Kansas before it tracks southeast.
This forecast has a great deal of uncertainty, and it is important to know that not everyone in this zone will experience severe weather, let alone storms. It is equally important to know that the ingredients will likely be present for very robust storms that could produce hail stones over 2" in diameter (egg size). Wind gusts up over 60mph a possibility, especially late if storms merge into a line segment. In addition to the wind and hail threat, a few tornadoes also can't be ruled. out.
Storms that develop Thursday evening and night, will track to the east and southeast. Some storms may linger on the radar into very early on Friday. With the potential for storms during the overnight, it is very important to have a way of receiving alerts, while you may be sleeping. In addition to the KAKE First Alert Weather App a NOAA weather radio is a great resource for events like this.
Stay tuned for updates and alerts, as we try to eliminate a few of those question marks that surround this forecast!
We’ll keep you up to date with our Interactive Radar and LIVE weather coverage. Get those features and more on the free First Alert Weather App. With the app you can track storms in your area, stream the latest forecast videos and live severe weather coverage, and set customized alerts to keep you and your family informed and safe.
In the event of severe weather, click here to follow KAKE First Alert Storm Trackers in the field.
