More severe storms and heavy rain possiblePosted: Updated:
A meandering stationary front in South Central and Southeast Kansas will act as focal point for these storms and it will contribute to their strength.
While Northern and Western Kansas could see showers and storms both Tuesday and Wednesday, the better ingredients for severe weather will be located in the South Central and Southeast corner of the state where temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer in the 60s.
Tuesday starts off damp across all of Oakland with showers and storms possible under a cloudy sky. The rain before the lunch hour is not expected to be severe but could be heavy at time and could also make driving difficult. It is during the afternoon and evening that the threat for severe weather will pick up across South Central and Southeast Kansas as the front pushes northward. Storms late Tuesday could once again bring large hail possibly topping 1”, wind gusts over 60mph along with heavy rain. At this time it appears that the tornado threat in KAKEland is extremely small and that the better ingredients for tornado will be found across Northeast Oklahoma. These storms will likely track east out of KAKEland during the early overnight hours Tuesday, making way for a relatively quiet overnight.
A point of uncertainty in the severe weather forecast for today is the morning shower and storm activity. In the simplest of terms, the morning showers and storms may "mess up" the atmosphere for the afternoon, thus decreasing the threat. If this is the case, the threat for severe weather will likely be shifted further to the southeast where ingredients appear to be better. Stay tuned for updates regarding the threats and threat zone as these details are worked out in the forecast.
The same frontal boundary is expected to remain camped out in Northern Oklahoma/Southern Kansas, Wednesday and could once again spark strong to severe storms that could produce hail larger than 1”, wind gusts over 60mph, and even a few tornadoes. Uncertainty is high regarding the placement of the front on Wednesday but at this time it appears that it will just barely include extreme Southeast KAKEland with best ingredients for severe weather staying south and east of Wichita. With high uncertainty regarding the placement of the front, the area of concern could easily be expanded or shifted as Wednesday afternoon approaches.
The severe weather threat is expected to fade as the stubborn front finally saunters out of KAKEland late Wednesday. While some shower and storm activity will be possible on Thursday it is not expected to be strong.
With several rounds of rain expected through the end of the week, flooding is a concern as some locations could easily see over 2” over South Central and Southeast Kansas. Extreme caution should be exercised around flood waters. Never drive across flooded roadways and kids should never play in or near flood zones.
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