November 13, 2009

6A
What To Watch In the East
In the East, the state quarterfinals have set up exactly the same way as last year: Lawrence Free State (8-2) at Olathe North (10-0) and BV Northwest (9-1) at Blue Valley Stilwell (4-6). Exact same match-ups.

Stilwell and BV Northwest just find themselves in opposite positions from last year. At 9-1, Stillwell travelled to 3-7 BV Northwest, which was coming off an upset of undefeated SM West. This year, Stilwell is coming off an upset of 8-1 SM West, 42-18, and hosting BV Northwest. Stilwell hosted BV Northwest Week 2 of the regular season and gave up three first-quarter touchdowns before losing 34-15.

Free State upset Olathe North 10-6 last year, but I don't see it happening this year. North is a clear favorite to win the 6A title.

Stilwell, though, I cannot figure out. They returned a quarterback in Anthony Abenoja (over 3,300 passing yards last season) and four offensive linemen but ended up having an utterly disappointing season, going 1-6 before winning their final two district games. The defense isn't very good, but the offense seems to have hit its stride in the last four weeks. Coach Steve Rampy, a four-time state champ at Blue Valley, is a veteran of the playoffs. I think Blue Valley Stilwell pulls off an upset here, and a sub-state match-up against undefeated Olathe North would be a showdown. North beat Stilwell 49-35 in the opening week of district play. If I'm Olathe North, I don't want to play Stilwell again.

Blue Valley Stilwell has not had a break on the schedule this season.

Manhattan 23, Blue Valley 21
BV NW 34, Blue Valley 15
Salina Central 31, Blue Valley 28
Blue Valley 34, BV North 13
Miege 42, Blue Valley 28
Aquinas 20, Blue Valley 19
Olathe North 49, Blue Valley 35
Blue Valley 42, Olathe South 14
Blue Valley 42, BV West 21

They're battle-tested.

Stilwell, by the way, provides my rationale for why I think the East is better than the West in Class 6A this season. Blue Valley Stilwell opened the season at Manhattan. Manhattan, now the undefeated No. 1 seed in the Western half of the playoffs, needed a touchdown on the final play of the game to defeat Stilwell 23-21. (Manhattan, though, is charmed this season. They defeated Emporia and Junction City on the final play, as well, which reminds me: Watch out for Emporia, Carroll.)

How The West Will Be Won
Wichita Heights (6-4) has a chance at No. 1 Manhattan (10-0) this Friday, but I don't see it happening. It's not because Manhattan is so dominant this year; they're not. They just as easily could have entered the playoffs at 6-3, rather than 9-0. I really don't think they're much better than Heights.

Heights just doesn't have a track record in the northeastern part of the state, which gives me no reason to pick them.

In 2007 district play, Heights dropped its final two games at Junction City (14-26) and at Manhattan (10-15).

Then in 2008, last season, an absolutely outstanding 9-1 Heights team coming off home drubbings on Derby and Dodge City travelled to 10-0 Junction City and didn't play their best game, losing 21-13.

I just can't see Heights traveling to Manhattan and winning.

This is going to sound ridiculous, but losing 27-0 to Heights in the final week of the season was the best thing that could have possibly happened for Derby football in terms of this month's 6A playoffs. As much as Heights owns Derby, Derby owns Northwest. While an excellent Derby team last year had a second-half score fest at home against Northwest in the state quarterfinals to win 55-14, an above average Derby team still totally controlled their first-round game at Northwest Friday.

Two conclusions: Heights knows how to prepare for Derby. Derby knows how to prepare for Northwest.

There was really never any doubt about the result after the first drive of the game for Derby, which they didn't even score on. Jameson Moore rushed for over 50 yards on the opening drive, busting for runs of 29, 9 and 13 yards. And even though Northwest stopped him at the goal line on fourth down, there was just a feeling that the Grizzlies didn't stand a chance. Morale was not good on the sideline from the start.

Derby partially blocked the punt after Northwest couldn't get a first down driving from their own goal line, then casually marched into the end zone, wrapping up the drive with a two-yard Tyler Harrison-Devin Hedgepeth hook-up.

Derby put the nail in the coffin at the end of the first half, though a Northwest bout with bad luck provided them the nail.

After an ineffective start at running back by the injured Demarcus Robinson, Northwest back-up back Andrew Etheridge took over and broke for two incredible runs in the second quarter. Down 21-0, he scored a touchdown on a run of 53 yards with 3:18 remaining in the half. The state runner-up hurdler leapt over the line and sprinted out to the corner and left everyone behind.

Just 1:28 later, Etheridge did it again. He broke for 66 yards, busting outside before cutting up field at the line. He was dragged down inside the red zone, barely, which turned out to be key.

That proved to be a huge play, as Northwest could not put together an effective drive outside of Etheridge's huge breaks. Northwest missed a field goal off the left upright into a nasty headwind.

Derby got the ball back, and with less than a minute remaining, Harrison connected downfield for 34 yards, and Moore had runs of 17 and 13 yards. Then Mason Young kicked a 37-yard field goal through the middle of the uprights.

If Etheridge hadn't gotten caught on the 66-yard run and instead had scored, Northwest could have trailed 21-14 at the half after being down 21-0 in the half's closing minutes. Derby instead built a 24-7 lead, with some excellent play calling on the final drive, running the ball when Northwest expected the pass.

Moore was very effective past the line of scrimmage. The Derby offensive line cleared gigantic gaps for him.

Northwest was the perfect match-up for Derby in the first round.

Now they host 8-2 Dodge City, coming off a first-round win over Topeka. Dodge lost to Great Bend and Hays mid-season.

See my point?

Derby could not have gotten a more beneficial draw. After traveling just 18 miles for their opening away game at Northwest, they now host a very beatable Dodge City team in the state quarterfinals.

Then, if they do beat Dodge, they would host No. 1 Manhattan for sub-state.

Derby can make the state title game.

Wow.